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Poll-driven wisdom failed again in Colombia

Tuesday, October 4, 2016


First Brexit, now Colombia. For the second time in a few months, referendum results have made a mockery of conventional wisdom shaped by opinion polls, and investors who believed them.

Colombian stocks, bonds and the peso fell on Monday, a day after voters rejected a peace deal with rebels. At least three surveys published last week had predicted the government-backed accord would pass with 60 percent support or more. The slide in U.K. markets in June, after Britons voted to quit the European Union, was even steeper.

Source: Bloomberg