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Honduras: down to the wire

Monday, October 28, 2013

With a month to go before national elections, it’s anyone’s guess who will win, with presidential hopefuls Juan Orlando Hernandez and Xiomara Castro running neck and neck, according to the latest CID Gallup survey, published earlier this month.

Hernandez, the National Party candidate, leads with 28%, followed by Castro, wife of former President José Manuel Zelaya, only one point behind.

However, the poll 's margin of error, estimated at 2.5%, means that it’s still anyone’s race.

Whoever wins between the two leaders, the result will mark a profound change in the Honduran political system, in which the Liberal Party for over a century has always formed either the government or the main opposition.

However, the Liberal candidate in this election, Mauricio Villeda, has the support of only 17% of potential voters, which means that his party is likely to end in third place.

Nor does Villeda have much likelihood of doing better, since only three out of 100 adults are reported as still undecided.

As many as 5.3 million Hondurans could vote on November 24.